After The Dust Settles: West Bengal

The electoral euphoria in 5 states- Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Puducherry- ended a fortnight ago. As the chief ministers take the constitutional oath and the MLAs lobby to get a ministerial berth, The Worldly Monk takes a closer look at each state to help you understand the ingredients of each victory and defeat.

Today, let's understand what led to the voter pressing the EVM button in favour of the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

WEST BENGAL
294 seats.
Majority Mark: 148

All India Trinamool Congress (AITC/TMC) - 211 (two-thirds majority)

Left Front {Communist Party of India (Marxist) - 26, Communist Party of India - 1, Revolutionary Socialist Party- 3, All India Forward Bloc - 2} - 32

Indian National Congress - 44

Bharatiya Janata Party - 3

Gorkhaland Janmukti Morcha - 3

Independent - 1

Chief Minister: Mamata Banerjee (AITC)

The Deciding Factors: What worked for the Trinamool Congress and what ruined it for the Left Front

The Mamata Factor. Running a presidential-style campaign ("I am the candidate in all 294 seats", she declared frequently and vehemently), Mamata Banerjee almost single handedly led her party to victory amidst allegations of corruption and political violence. A post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) & Lokniti reveals the importance of the 'Mamata' factor. A whopping 77% of those voting for TMC did so because of Mamata Banerjee; her approval ratings as CM also increased from 34% in 2011 to 60% in 2016. Almost a third of the respondents felt she did a better job than West Bengal's longest serving CM, late Jyoti Basu. So, not only was there no anti-incumbency but rather a pro-incumbency among the voters in favour of Mamata Banerjee.

The Left in disarray. With no mass leader in the ranks, an ageing leadership & no clarity on the CM candidate, the Left Front was always struggling to gain momentum. The very culture of political violence, intimidation and rural strongholds that it used to stay in power for more than three decades was now a potent weapon in the hands of the TMC. TMC was now the stronger cadre-based party and the Left knew it going into the polls. Nobody bet their money on the Left in the polls, but nobody saw them doing this bad either.

Mamata's 'MW' factor. Lalu Prasad Yadav famously made the 'Muslim-Yadav' (MY) factor his strength in Bihar. Now it seems Mamata has her very own 'Muslim-Women' (MW) combine to win her elections. The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey reveals that 51% Muslim voters & 48% female voters chose the TMC. Also the poor voted decisively for the TMC (52%) and are no longer the Left's traditional vote-bank. Add to this the TMC's tight grip over the rural areas and the Left has nowhere to go in West Bengal.

The Left Front-Congress 'alliance' failed miserably. Not only did Congress end up winning more seats that the Left (which the Left never would have imagined), the Left is, for the first time in West Bengal, party no. 3 in the state assembly. The alliance got only 65% of the anti-TMC vote and more importantly, in the alliance, the committed Left votes transferred to the Congress, but the not-so-committed Congress votes instead went to the TMC. Ideologically, arithmetically & politically- the 'alliance' was a disaster for the Left.

The Left needs to do some serious political recouping if it wants to stay relevant in West Bengal.

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