After The Dust Settles: Assam

The electoral euphoria in 5 states- Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Puducherry- came to an end last week. As the chief ministers take the constitutional oath and the MLAs lobby to get a ministerial berth, The Worldly Monk takes a closer look at each state to help you understand the ingredients of each victory and defeat. Beginning today with Assam, the series 'After The Dust Settles' will analyse, in a nut-shell some of the five states to try and determine what led to the voter pressing the EVM button in favour of the winning party.

ASSAM

Total Seats : 126

Majority Mark : 64

NDA - 86 (BJP 60, AGP 14, BOPF 12) (two-thirds majority)

Indian National Congress - 26

AIUDF - 13

Independent - 1

Chief Minister: Sarbananda Sonowal (BJP)

The Deciding Factors: what worked for the BJP & what went wrong for the Congress

15 years of anti-incumbency. The eternal enemy of politicians, anti-incumency, of three consecutive terms in the case of Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, worked against the Congress and gave BJP a headstart. The initial confidence for the BJP cadres was derived from the mood of anti-incumbency in Assam. An ageing CM, facing accusations of nepotism added to the misery.

Strong consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of BJP & its allies. A post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in partnership with Lokniti revealed a record 63% Hindu vote consolidation in favour of the BJP. A major chunk of the Congress' Hindu vote decisively shifted in favour of the BJP. In simplistic terms, BJP gained from a consolidation of the Hindu votes in its favour and the division of Muslim votes between the Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by Badruddin Ajmal.

Himanta Biswa Sarma. Congress MLA from Jalukbari constituency in Assam from 2001-2015, Sarma held various portfolios in the Tarun Gogoi government and was widely appreciated for his work in the Health & Education ministries. Often seen as Gogoi's 'right-hand man', Sarma had a falling out with Gogoi in the run-up to the elections. Various reasons were cited including Gogoi's preference for his son over Sarma as his political heir, Sarma's bitter interactions with Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, and also Sarma's perception of the anti-Congress sentiment in the state. Sarma joined the BJP in August 2015 along with nine sitting MLAs of the Congress. As convenor of the BJP's campaign, he played a crucial role in bringing down his former boss Tarun Gogoi.

BJP made the 'Bangladeshi immigrants' issue its war cry. Having been raising the illegal immigrants issue very vocally for the past many years, the BJP made it the centrepiece of its campaign in Assam. People related to the issue both politically and emotively- bringing people out to vote & in BJP's favour.

Coalition & CM candidate. BJP learnt its lesson from Bihar & projected Sarbananda Sonowal (formerly an Asom Gana Parishad leader & the then Union Sports & Youth Affairs Minister in the Modi government) as the Chief Ministerial candidate well in advance. Also, the BJP's pre-poll alliances with the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) & Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) helped it consolidate the anti-Congress vote.

No wonder then, that the BJP-led NDA is now in power in Assam with a two-thirds majority in the legislative assembly.

(Next: West Bengal.)